Economia de fox

Foro Económico

La economía en cuatro años del gobierno de Vicente Fox
Jaime Ornelas Delgado
Aportes, Revista de la Facultad de Economía, BUAP, Año IX, Número 27, Septiembre-Diciembre de 2004

Introducción El primero de diciembre de 2000, Vicente Fox, quien propuesto por el Partido Acción Nacional había conseguido el triunfo en la jornada electoral del 2 de julio de ese mismo año, asumióla Presidencia de la República que, durante siete décadas, habían ocupado exclusivamente los candidatos propuestos por el Partido Revolucionario Institucional. El nuevo presidente, que basó su campaña electoral en la promesa del cambio, de lograr una tasa sostenida de crecimiento económico y ofrecer empleo para todos los mexicanos, despertó muchas y muy variadas expectativas entre diversossectores de la sociedad mexicana y es precisamente sobre los resultados económicos y sociales prevalecientes a cuatro años de haberse iniciado el gobierno foxista, que versan las siguientes líneas. El comportamiento de la economía A lo largo de las dos décadas de gobiernos neoliberales en México, el PIB ha mostrado un comportamiento sumamente errático (Gráfica 1), caracterizado además por:
Uncrecimiento insuficiente, el deterioro en los niveles de bienestar de la población,

permanente caída del salario real acompañada de la concentración del ingreso, y un crecimiento en el déficit acumulado en la creación de empleos […] Todo ello en medio de al menos dos crisis: 1982 y 1995 y de severos periodos de contracción económica. [Garavito, 2001: 141.]

A las dos crisis mencionadas –la primeraque cierra el ciclo del nacionalismo revolucionario y la segunda que evidencia la impotencia del modelo neoliberal para lograr tasas elevadas de crecimiento económico y mejorar el bienestar de la población– , debe agregarse la más reciente desaceleración económica que comienza con el gobierno de Vicente Fox y se prolonga hasta el momento. En la primera mitad del sexenio de Vicente Fox, elcrecimiento acumulado de la economía mexicana fue de apenas 1.9 por ciento, es decir, un promedio anual de 0.63 por ciento, ni siquiera una décima parte de la promesa electoral que había sido del 7 por ciento y, lo más preocupante, menos de un tercio de la tasa a la que ha crecido la población del país, lo que significa una continua disminución del PIB per cápita, expresando una tendencia al empobreci-[ 109 ]

110

JAIME ORNELAS DELGADO

miento de la población mayoritaria del país. El desempeño de la economía en ese lapso, fue incluso inferior al registrado para el mismo periodo en la administración de Miguel de la Madrid —gobierno que cubre la mayor parte de la década pérdida de los 80—, cuando el PIB se elevó apenas 2 por ciento y que, en su momento, había sido el periodo con elpeor desempeño para lapsos similares desde el gobierno de Adolfo Ruiz Cortines (1952–1958); esto es, desde medio siglo antes cuando en el primer trienio de ese gobierno el PIB apenas creció 0.3 por ciento, aunque concluyó creciendo 19.7 por ciento, según los registros oficiales de aquella época, lo que parece muy lejos de ocurrir ahora.1
1 Por cierto, el mayor crecimiento acumulado del PIB en lostres primeros años de gobierno se logró durante el denostado gobierno de José López Portillo, cuando la economía creció 22.9 por ciento, expansión sustentada en una creciente inversión financiada con deuda externa avalada por los elevados precios internacionales del petróleo y los gran-

La economía mexicana ha marchado de manera tal que han empezado a surgir voces, entre el sector empresarialy por supuesto en el académico, que sugieren revisar y cambiar el actual modelo económico. Sin embargo, el presidente Fox ha rechazado con vehemencia esta demanda y ha proclamado que su gobierno, de “empresarios y para empresarios”, no cambiará pues ha logrado ya, en el primer trimestre de 2004, un importante crecimiento del PIB.2
des volúmenes del hidrocarburo exportados por el país. 2 A los…

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